 Musings on Home Energy Management Systems - By Patti Harper-Slaboszewicz Daily IssueAlert 1/7/2009 Free As we debate how home energy management systems will emerge and who will dominate the scene, it's important to consider how these new products will fit in within the customer home. We already have a number of communication networks in the home:
Where will the home energy management system reside? What will it communicate with? How will customers interact with it? Who will sell it to customers? Why will customers use one? To answer these questions, it is important to understand how TVs, cellular phones, and computers will evolve and work together over the next decade. Technically savvy consumers can choose to watch TV shows on their cellular phones, computers or TVs at a time that is convenient to them. We can read and send e-mails on our cell phones or computers, at home, in the office, or at the airport. Gaming consoles can use the internet to support multi-player games. Even more popular are massively multiplayer online (MMO) games played on computers with tens of thousands of players around the world supported by multiple servers. Flat screen TVs with large screens and high definition pictures are relentlessly gaining market share as consumers prefer to watch movies, TV shows and games with brighter, larger, more realistic images. Customer homes have various remote controls that are used manage TVs, control boxes, stereos and game consoles. In the midst of this chaos, the home energy management system will make its debut. Of these devices, which ones will be in use in most households in 10 years?
TV: TVs will persist as a product. Even though we can play games and watch TV shows on computers, consumers appreciate the larger screens and generally choose to use TVs when the experience will be shared.
Various controllers for devices: it is likely that third-party providers will gain market share and providers of other devices will cooperate to allow consumers to use one device (per person?) to manage devices within and around the home. Perhaps the device to perform these tasks will be the cellular phone and perhaps there will be a device associated with the home as well (a home based cellular phone?) to allow babysitters and other visitors to control devices within the home on a limited basis. It seems likely that technology used in iPhone's user interface will be adapted by vendors for controllers so that the cell phone could show an image of every type of controller used in your home. Applications might be developed that will allow you to select Watch Movie and all the devices involved with this activity in your home will be turned on or adjusted automatically, leaving you to focus on movie selection. A child's controller would only show movies appropriate for children to watch, for example. If you wanted to watch a football game, various football games would be offered based on your preferences and a history of which teams you have preferred to watch, including live games and recent games available for viewing. And again, you wouldn't have to turn on the TV, turn on the cable box, select the appropriate input for the TV, turn on the stereo, select Video, adjust the volume on the TV and stereo, find the football game among the myriad of channels, and adjust the lighting—it would all be done by your cell phone running an application. Communication service: Cable, Cellular, DSL, Satellite, WiMax, Other: All, none, or some. It's just anyone's guess right now as to how these services will evolve. Cable works well and has expanded into phone service. DSL is a strong competitor and DSL companies also offer phone service. WiMax is said to be coming and will revolutionize internet service. Satellite has a lot of supporters and works where others don't compete as well. The best prediction is that at any one time, there will be several in use by millions of customers. Other appliances: More and more devices will include communications—dryers, washers, air conditioners, heaters, refrigerators, lights, hot water heaters, coffee pots, microwaves, ovens, fans, humidifiers, cars, bicycles, freezers, pumps, sprinklers, sensors, outdoor lighting—to the internet. Their connection might be direct to the internet or via another device. These devices will communicate useful information to each other that will include information for energy efficiency but other information as well. Your washing machine may "ping" you to let you know the load is done. A sensor may communicate to the air conditioner that it's cooler outside than inside. Another sensor may communicate that it's too windy for the sprinklers to continue to run. The refrigerator may signal that the last gallon of milk has been opened to the "grocery list" application that then adds Milk to the grocery list. This view is of course, several decades away. It's not that technically any of these can't be achieved. Rather it's that the cost per home would be more than what a typical consumer would be willing to spend and it takes time for glitches to be discovered and fixed and finally, for customers to see value in the innovations. But the view provides clues as to how home energy management systems might evolve. Clue 1: It won't be a home energy management system but a home management system that includes energy management applications along with other features. Clue 2: The consumer will be able to interface with the application on various devices, whichever device is most convenient at the time, and the consumer will demand it be accessible remotely, such as on the train or at work, mostly likely via an internet connection. Two interface devices that immediately come to mind are cell phones and computers. Clue 3: The home management system may use a variety of methods to communicate with the various devices it needs to communicate with and these will change over time. The best prediction is that at any one time, there will be multiple communications methods/protocols that need to be supported and that over time, these will change. The different communication methods should be as invisible to the consumer as practical. Consumers will need to be aware of which communication methods/protocols are supported and new ones should be able to be added with a minimum of fuss. Clue 4: Market shares of the home management system will be shared among several competitors at any given time, new innovations and applications will emerge, and market share shifts will be expected to occur, just like with any other product offered to consumers. Winning systems will need to communicate with a variety of devices offered by other vendors and success will depend on offering the following to consumers:
If a home management system satisfies the above requirements, then the product has a good chance of success and being used to reduce energy use. It doesn't matter if the market is already crowded with controllers and devices and communication systems—the Wii game console was introduced when the XBox, PlayStation and MMO games were well established and yet has not only survived but done well. The Wii capitalizes on using body motion to control the player's progress through games, making it entertaining for players and for others watching and reaches a broader audience than other video games. Young, old, people with disabilities—all can play the Wii. The Wii Fit game goes one step further and rides the coattails of getting in better shape while continuing to "entertain." The home management market is wide open to vendors from almost any consumer market to offer products that will provide convenience and energy savings to customers. Software companies—large and small, cellular providers, internet service companies, appliance manufacturers—any of these could enter the market and win significant market share. And if you could reduce the number of controllers on everyone's coffee table, so much the better.
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Computers: laptop and desktop. Both will continue to be in use. Laptops will gain market share but gaming enthusiasts and those wanting a less expensive computer for home use will support the market for desktops. The breadth of uses for computers will continue to expand.
Phones: Land-line phones will be phased out as fewer households will keep one around. The breadth of uses for cellular phones will continue to expand and user interfaces will continue to improve to maintain user friendliness. The trend towards smaller and smaller phones has stopped to support bigger screens and key stroking. The percentage of time a phone is used for phone calls will continue to decline.